Fair CDR
  Allocation  

IPPC 1.5°C Report - Models and Senarios Used in the Analysis
  • There are a total of 408 models and scenarios in the data associated with the IPPC 1.5°C Report.
  • Since the analysis is concerned with trying to meet (or exceed) a 1.5°C temperature target, scenarios were eliminated where (1) the atmospheric CO2 exceeded 460 PPM in 2060, (2) the total radiative forcing exceeded 3.5 W/m-2 in 2060, or (3) the radiative forcing from methane exceeded 0.39 W/m-2 in 2060.
  • The table below lists the remaining 118 scenarios.
  • The scenarios that were used to create the formulas have a gray background im the the "Forcing CH4" cell.
  • Cells with orange backgrounds indicate scenarios where the calculated temperature increase in 2060 exceeds the scenarios temperature increase by more than 0.05°C.
  • The formulas are reasonable accurate, but will eventually be revised to include all of the scenarios where the calculated difference is less than 0.10°C.
The data in the table is for the year 2060.
Model Scenario CO2 CumCO2 PPM TempP66 TempCalc TmpDif Methane Forcing CO2 Forcing CH4
AIM/CGE 2.0 ADVANCE_2020_1.5C-2100 -5.26 442 415 1.65 1.66 0.01 111 2.22 0.23
AIM/CGE 2.0 ADVANCE_2020_WB2C 0.86 664 434 1.77 1.80 0.03 154 2.46 0.29
AIM/CGE 2.0 ADVANCE_2030_Price1.5C -4.69 674 433 1.89 1.81 0.08 131 2.46 0.26
AIM/CGE 2.0 SFCM_SSP2_Bio_1p5Degree 7.07 664 435 1.76 1.80 0.04 143 2.44 0.27
AIM/CGE 2.0 SFCM_SSP2_combined_1p5Degree 4.68 591 431 1.74 1.76 0.02 136 2.38 0.27
AIM/CGE 2.0 SFCM_SSP2_EEEI_1p5Degree 4.29 593 430 1.73 1.76 0.03 136 2.38 0.27
AIM/CGE 2.0 SFCM_SSP2_LifeStyle_1p5Degree 5.13 612 431 1.74 1.77 0.03 131 2.39 0.26
AIM/CGE 2.0 SFCM_SSP2_Ref_1p5Degree 5.67 634 432 1.75 1.78 0.03 138 2.41 0.27
AIM/CGE 2.0 SFCM_SSP2_ST_bio_1p5Degree 6.35 649 433 1.76 1.79 0.03 141 2.43 0.27
AIM/CGE 2.0 SFCM_SSP2_ST_CCS_1p5Degree 6.53 647 433 1.75 1.79 0.04 141 2.42 0.27
AIM/CGE 2.0 SFCM_SSP2_ST_nuclear_1p5Degree 5.5 632 432 1.75 1.78 0.03 138 2.41 0.27
AIM/CGE 2.0 SFCM_SSP2_ST_solar_1p5Degree 5.32 626 431 1.75 1.78 0.03 137 2.4 0.27
AIM/CGE 2.0 SFCM_SSP2_ST_wind_1p5Degree 5.14 622 431 1.74 1.78 0.04 137 2.4 0.27
AIM/CGE 2.0 SFCM_SSP2_SupTech_1p5Degree 6.22 643 433 1.76 1.79 0.03 143 2.42 0.27
AIM/CGE 2.0 SSP1-19 -2.18 484 422 1.65 1.69 0.04 62 2.28 0.17
AIM/CGE 2.0 SSP1-26 8.68 881 455 1.92 1.94 0.02 147 2.69 0.28
AIM/CGE 2.0 SSP2-19 -4.9 499 419 1.67 1.70 0.03 92 2.28 0.21
AIM/CGE 2.0 SSP2-26 6.52 871 451 1.91 1.93 0.02 182 2.66 0.31
AIM/CGE 2.1 CD-LINKS_NPi2020_1000 1.03 629 435 1.8 1.78 0.02 171 2.47 0.3
AIM/CGE 2.1 CD-LINKS_NPi2020_400 -7.02 392 415 1.67 1.63 0.04 122 2.2 0.25
AIM/CGE 2.1 EMF33_WB2C_cost100 -0.1 675 435 1.78 1.81 0.03 145 2.47 0.27
AIM/CGE 2.1 EMF33_WB2C_full -0.11 702 437 1.8 1.83 0.03 153 2.5 0.28
AIM/CGE 2.1 TERL_15D_LowCarbonTransportPolicy -2.6 457 421 1.71 1.67 0.04 172 2.29 0.29
AIM/CGE 2.1 TERL_15D_NoTransportPolicy -1.6 491 423 1.73 1.69 0.04 165 2.32 0.28
C-ROADS-5.005 Ratchet-1.5-allCDR -5.16 722 439 1.85 1.84 0.01 177 2.51 0.32
C-ROADS-5.005 Ratchet-1.5-limCDR -5.43 613 429 1.77 1.77 0.00 177 2.39 0.31
C-ROADS-5.005 Ratchet-1.5-limCDR-noOS -10.56 140 391 1.5 1.48 0.02 177 1.9 0.31
C-ROADS-5.005 Ratchet-1.5-noCDR -3.96 439 416 1.67 1.66 0.01 177 2.22 0.31
C-ROADS-5.005 Ratchet-1.5-noCDR-noOS -4.09 241 401 1.55 1.54 0.01 177 2.03 0.31
GCAM 4.2 SSP1-19 -0.63 535 424 1.75 1.72 0.03 195 2.32 0.34
IMAGE 3.0.1 ADVANCE_2020_1.5C-2100 -7.55 474 421 1.76 1.68 0.08 187 2.28 0.32
IMAGE 3.0.1 ADVANCE_2020_WB2C 2.79 746 445 1.9 1.85 0.05 190 2.57 0.33
IMAGE 3.0.1 CD-LINKS_NPi2020_400 -6.99 483 423 1.78 1.69 0.09 187 2.3 0.33
IMAGE 3.0.1 IMA15-AGInt -5.28 470 422 1.7 1.68 0.02 164 2.28 0.29
IMAGE 3.0.1 IMA15-Def -8.14 397 416 1.7 1.64 0.06 181 2.21 0.32
IMAGE 3.0.1 IMA15-Eff -7.53 394 416 1.71 1.63 0.08 179 2.2 0.32
IMAGE 3.0.1 IMA15-LiStCh -5.43 428 418 1.66 1.66 0.00 135 2.23 0.26
IMAGE 3.0.1 IMA15-LoNCO2 -3.06 545 427 1.72 1.73 0.01 114 2.35 0.26
IMAGE 3.0.1 IMA15-Pop -6.35 476 422 1.72 1.69 0.03 175 2.28 0.31
IMAGE 3.0.1 IMA15-RenElec -6.52 428 419 1.72 1.66 0.06 183 2.24 0.32
IMAGE 3.0.1 IMA15-TOT -3.29 371 413 1.6 1.62 0.02 86 2.16 0.21
IMAGE 3.0.1 SSP1-19 -1.65 427 419 1.66 1.65 0.01 144 2.22 0.27
IMAGE 3.0.1 SSP4-26 1.78 712 443 1.9 1.83 0.07 184 2.54 0.32
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0 ADVANCE_2020_1.5C-2100 -2.43 517 422 1.72 1.71 0.01 148 2.28 0.28
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0 ADVANCE_2030_Price1.5C -0.21 860 448 1.93 1.92 0.01 157 2.61 0.29
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0 EMF33_1.5C_cost100 -8.79 393 411 1.67 1.63 0.04 143 2.15 0.27
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0 EMF33_1.5C_full -8.91 394 411 1.67 1.63 0.04 143 2.15 0.27
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0 EMF33_Med2C_none 8.39 862 450 1.91 1.92 0.01 203 2.64 0.33
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0 EMF33_WB2C_cost100 0.43 768 442 1.88 1.87 0.01 199 2.54 0.33
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0 EMF33_WB2C_full 0.3 765 442 1.88 1.86 0.02 198 2.53 0.33
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0 EMF33_WB2C_limbio -1 629 431 1.8 1.78 0.02 185 2.4 0.31
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0 EMF33_WB2C_nofuel 0.53 745 440 1.87 1.85 0.02 196 2.51 0.33
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0 SSP1-19 -4.03 607 428 1.75 1.77 0.02 145 2.35 0.27
MESSAGE-GLOBIOM 1.0 SSP2-19 -1.51 606 429 1.76 1.77 0.01 169 2.37 0.32
MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM 1.0 CD-LINKS_NPi2020_400 -7.1 565 427 1.76 1.74 0.02 154 2.34 0.29
MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM 1.0 LowEnergyDemand -0.07 485 420 1.68 1.69 0.01 128 2.26 0.25
POLES ADVANCE ADVANCE_2020_WB2C 2.2 870 451 1.83 1.93 0.10 124 2.68 0.25
POLES ADVANCE ADVANCE_2030_Price1.5C -6.02 669 434 1.76 1.80 0.04 105 2.47 0.22
POLES ADVANCE ADVANCE_2030_WB2C 0.81 919 455 1.87 1.96 0.09 121 2.72 0.24
POLES CD-LINKS CD-LINKS_NPi2020_1000 3.82 895 457 1.89 1.95 0.06 120 2.73 0.24
POLES CD-LINKS CD-LINKS_NPi2020_400 -3.05 606 433 1.75 1.77 0.02 101 2.44 0.22
POLES EMF33 EMF33_1.5C_cost100 -4.84 346 412 1.51 1.60 0.09 47 2.17 0.15
POLES EMF33 EMF33_1.5C_full -4.8 378 415 1.53 1.62 0.09 51 2.21 0.15
POLES EMF33 EMF33_1.5C_limbio -3.05 287 408 1.5 1.57 0.07 39 2.12 0.13
POLES EMF33 EMF33_1.5C_nofuel -4.92 313 410 1.48 1.58 0.10 47 2.14 0.15
POLES EMF33 EMF33_Med2C_limbio 11.61 905 459 1.84 1.95 0.11 127 2.75 0.24
POLES EMF33 EMF33_Med2C_nobeccs 10.06 805 450 1.77 1.89 0.12 91 2.64 0.21
POLES EMF33 EMF33_Med2C_none 9.36 786 448 1.75 1.88 0.13 89 2.62 0.21
POLES EMF33 EMF33_WB2C_cost100 1.74 691 440 1.72 1.82 0.10 95 2.52 0.21
POLES EMF33 EMF33_WB2C_full 1.84 701 441 1.72 1.82 0.10 103 2.53 0.22
POLES EMF33 EMF33_WB2C_limbio 2.54 617 434 1.69 1.77 0.08 60 2.46 0.16
POLES EMF33 EMF33_WB2C_nobeccs 3.25 502 425 1.59 1.70 0.11 50 2.34 0.15
POLES EMF33 EMF33_WB2C_nofuel 1.63 678 439 1.7 1.81 0.11 90 2.51 0.21
POLES EMF33 EMF33_WB2C_none 3.08 490 424 1.59 1.69 0.10 49 2.33 0.15
REMIND 1.7 ADVANCE_2020_1.5C-2100 -8.68 507 420 1.84 1.70 0.14 215 2.29 0.37
REMIND 1.7 ADVANCE_2030_1.5C-2100 -13.35 652 430 1.97 1.79 0.18 212 2.42 0.38
REMIND 1.7 CEMICS-1.5-CDR12 -6.65 401 410 1.7 1.64 0.06 214 2.17 0.34
REMIND 1.7 CEMICS-1.5-CDR20 -7.94 602 426 1.81 1.76 0.05 223 2.38 0.35
REMIND 1.7 CEMICS-1.5-CDR8 -6.39 283 401 1.62 1.57 0.05 209 2.06 0.34
REMIND 1.7 CEMICS-2.0-CDR8 2.55 724 437 1.86 1.84 0.02 221 2.51 0.35
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.5 SSP1-19 -6.32 624 434 1.83 1.78 0.05 165 2.42 0.31
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.5 SSP2-19 -10.48 500 420 1.79 1.70 0.09 188 2.28 0.32
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.5 SSP5-19 -12.84 759 442 1.92 1.86 0.06 189 2.55 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 CD-LINKS_NPi2020_400 -7.36 530 424 1.8 1.72 0.08 198 2.34 0.34
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 EMF33_1.5C_cost100 -5.81 743 442 1.91 1.85 0.06 203 2.57 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 EMF33_1.5C_full -5.59 731 440 1.91 1.84 0.07 205 2.56 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 EMF33_1.5C_nofuel -6.41 629 431 1.83 1.78 0.05 202 2.45 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 EMF33_WB2C_limbio 2.61 770 444 1.91 1.87 0.04 211 2.6 0.34
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 EMF33_WB2C_nobeccs 3.65 739 442 1.88 1.85 0.03 208 2.57 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 EMF33_WB2C_none 3.59 632 433 1.82 1.78 0.04 201 2.47 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 PEP_1p5C_full_eff -7.91 545 425 1.78 1.73 0.05 202 2.35 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 PEP_1p5C_full_goodpractice -12.76 686 435 1.88 1.82 0.06 198 2.48 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 PEP_1p5C_full_NDC -14.93 737 438 1.92 1.85 0.07 197 2.53 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 PEP_1p5C_full_netzero -11.23 658 434 1.86 1.80 0.06 199 2.46 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 PEP_1p5C_red_eff -6.31 260 402 1.6 1.55 0.05 192 2.06 0.32
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 PEP_2C_red_eff 0.11 644 433 1.81 1.79 0.02 202 2.46 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 PEP_2C_red_goodpractice -3.44 758 442 1.9 1.86 0.04 196 2.56 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 PEP_2C_red_NDC -4.97 812 445 1.95 1.89 0.06 195 2.61 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 PEP_2C_red_netzero -2.61 726 440 1.88 1.84 0.04 197 2.53 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 SMP_1p5C_Def -6.37 495 421 1.72 1.70 0.02 202 2.28 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 SMP_1p5C_early -4.33 310 408 1.58 1.58 0.00 202 2.1 0.33
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 SMP_1p5C_lifesty -6.27 480 418 1.65 1.69 0.04 147 2.26 0.26
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 SMP_1p5C_regul -7.22 376 410 1.62 1.62 0.00 178 2.16 0.3
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 SMP_1p5C_Sust -4.28 274 403 1.49 1.56 0.07 136 2.04 0.25
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 SMP_2C_early 3.25 644 435 1.78 1.79 0.01 216 2.45 0.34
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 SMP_2C_lifesty 2.72 806 445 1.84 1.89 0.05 154 2.6 0.29
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 SMP_2C_regul 0.97 730 439 1.83 1.84 0.01 191 2.53 0.32
REMIND-MAgPIE 1.7-3.0 SMP_2C_Sust 2.76 620 431 1.71 1.77 0.06 149 2.41 0.27
WITCH-GLOBIOM 3.1 SSP1-19 -0.7 412 418 1.68 1.65 0.03 129 2.23 0.24
WITCH-GLOBIOM 3.1 SSP1-26 10.49 727 444 1.87 1.84 0.03 164 2.57 0.28
WITCH-GLOBIOM 3.1 SSP2-26 10.11 718 444 1.85 1.84 0.01 174 2.56 0.29
WITCH-GLOBIOM 3.1 SSP4-19 -0.18 477 422 1.69 1.69 0.00 131 2.3 0.25
WITCH-GLOBIOM 4.2 ADVANCE_2020_1.5C-2100 0.53 476 423 1.76 1.69 0.07 143 2.3 0.25
WITCH-GLOBIOM 4.2 ADVANCE_2020_WB2C 9.18 745 445 1.89 1.85 0.04 146 2.58 0.25
WITCH-GLOBIOM 4.2 ADVANCE_2030_Price1.5C 4.38 813 449 1.95 1.89 0.06 144 2.63 0.25
WITCH-GLOBIOM 4.2 ADVANCE_2030_WB2C 6.14 843 452 1.97 1.91 0.06 144 2.66 0.25
WITCH-GLOBIOM 4.4 CD-LINKS_NPi2020_1000 4.91 701 438 1.75 1.82 0.07 127 2.51 0.22
WITCH-GLOBIOM 4.4 CD-LINKS_NPi2020_400 -2.9 436 416 1.62 1.66 0.04 116 2.23 0.21